Russian War in Ukraine After 1/4 Year
On Wednesday Feb 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. That's
13 weeks ago today (Wed May 25, 2022). 13 weeks is 3
months or 1/4 of a year.
Russia initially had about 170,000 troops for the invasion.
Ukraine has decimated (killed) about 30,000 of those troops.
And with about 90,000 wounded, left Russia with only 50,000
functional, able bodied soldiers.
Russia has been scrambling to replenish lost troops. Hiring
mercenaries from Syria and other countries. It even passed
a law allowing Russian citizens up to 40 years old to join
its army.
Initially Russia had at least 1,000 tanks in Ukraine. The
Ukrainian army wiped out huge numbers of those tanks. An
unbelievable number of those tanks were either destroyed,
abandoned or otherwise incapacitated. About 1,200 Russian
tanks were eliminated in short order.
This meant that Russia had to have been drawing tanks from
its reserves (known to be >11,000) and sending them to
fight against Ukraine. It was said that these reserve tanks
were missing parts that had been stolen. Also many reserve
tanks (10%) wouldn't even start or were not operational
for one reason or another. Mechanic crews are working 24/7
to deliver working tanks.
Russia has not only been under pressure and scrambling to
replenish lost tanks - but also crews to operate the tanks.
A crew of 3 is standard in many Russian tanks. Every tank
blown up takes the crew with it. If 500 tanks are wiped out
you need 1,500 new or additional crew members to run 500
replacement tanks. Where do you get them? It takes time to
recruit and train new tank crews.
Loosing that many tanks (1,200) and having a hard time
replacing those losses has left the Kremlin's army in
Ukraine with far fewer tanks than they would like to have.
This is a serious problem for Putin and his generals.
Ukraine might have had a few hundred tanks to start with
and they have lost many tanks too. But Ukraine is using
captured Russian tanks against Russia. And various
countries have donated tanks to Ukraine. So that today
Ukraine actually has MORE tanks than Russia in the war.
Certainly an unbelievable, unprecedented and unforeseen
turning of the tables.
At the war's outset the world was under the impression that
the Russian army was one of the top 3 armies in the world
and much feared. Today the Russian army is the butt of jokes.
How could a country like Ukraine hold out for 3 months
against mighty Russia "a superpower" on its boarder?
Ukraine had 44 million people, 6 million fled the country
(14%). 10 to 12 million (~25%) are now internally displaced.
Either homeless or living with relatives or friends. The
reduced manpower to drawn on makes it very hard for Ukraine
to build up their army. And to do it while a war is raging is
astounding.
Many experienced military fighters from around the world have
traveled to the conflict and are fighting shoulder to shoulder
with Ukrainians for the Ukrainian cause.
Ukraine wasn't starting an army from nothing. They had steadily
been building up a fighting force for 8 years since Russia
grabbed Crimea, part of Ukraine, in 2014.
At the beginning everyone thought Russian would simply walk
into Ukraine and take over in 2 days to a week. What?, wait
a minute. Today, a full 1/4 of a year later, most everyone
believes Ukraine will actually kick Russia's butt!
Ukrainian president Zelenskyy had become a hero of epic
proportions overnight. And so has the zealous, determined
"We Will Win" spirit of the Ukrainian people as a whole.
At the war's start who would have bet on Ukraine over
Russia? The odds might have been at least 100 to 1.
By JCShook 5/25/2022